NFL 2005 Week 13 Predictions

Bad week last week for me. Not taking the time to think more about each game is costing me, so I have to take the time this week.

Before we start, a few weeks ago I gave my predictions for playoff seedings. Time for a few corrections. In the AFC, I don't see Denver falling out of the second spot now. Their schedule is not too demanding. I still take the Steelers to win their division, but drop them to 3rd seed. I'll keep San Diego in there at 6th seed, but Jacksonville cannot be dismissed. In the NFC, I have to drop Washington out of the picture. (Yes, I'm off their bandwagon again.) I'm still not sold on the Seahawks, who barely won against San Francisco and only beat the Giants thanks to numerous missed field goals. Not exactly impressive. So, I'll keep the Panthers at #1 and the Seahawks at #2. I officially like the Bears. Dominant defense, strong running, and I think Orton looks to have quite a bit of potential as a QB. I'll bump them ahead of Dallas since they are already ahead. I'm seriously tempted to even bump them ahead of Seattle.

So, revised seeding predictions:

AFC

1. Indianapolis.
2. Denver
3. Pittsburgh
4. New England
5. Cincinnati
6. San Diego

NFC

1. Carolina
2. Seattle
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. Atlanta
6. New York Giants

Oh, and the Super Bowl will still be the Colts and the Panthers, but I'm now convinced no one can stop the Colts. Having watched them totally destroy the Steelers, with both offense and defense, I think they go all the way. The Panthers will give them a run, and the Colt defense can be beaten, as the Bengals showed, but still the Colts can just keep ratcheting up their game.

Onto this week...

Falcons @ Panthers
The Panthers have never beaten a Falcon team lead by a healthy Michael Vick. If they are going to do everything I predict they will, they have to end that streak this week. A win and they open a two game lead on the Falcons in the division with four to go, including the rematch to close out the season. This week and next (against the Bucs) are crucial for the Panthers as they have the opportunity to basically put away their main division rivals and all but lock up the division title. The Falcon defense has been suspect this year against the run, which the Panthers will exploit with their two headed running attack. The strong Panther defensive front will shut down the Falcon running game, which is their offense, allowing the secondary to tee off on Atlanta's receivers and to blitz Vick. Prediction: Panthers.

Bills @ Dolphins
Two disappointing teams battling for second place in the AFC East. The Dolphin running game is coming together nicely, and that should be enough to take the weak Bills. Prediction: Dolphins.

Bengals @ Steelers
One of the big games of the week. The Bengals have a one game lead on the Steelers in the division, but Pittsburgh won the first matchup between the two so a win will bring them even and give the Steelers the tie-breaker edge. The Bengals are much like the Colts of recent years: all about offense and trying to not look too foolish on defense. The future is bright in Cincy, but Marvin Lewis needs to develop his defense more, which is his forté. But for now, the Steelers have the defense, and a good offense to go with it. (Though it didn't look that way against the Colts.) Prediction: Steelers.

Cowboys @ Giants
A game for the division lead. Both sit at 7-4 tied for first. This is a tough game to pick. Both teams have very good offenses. The difference will be in the defense, and the Cowboys look better. Prediction: Cowboys.

Packers @ Bears
Will Mike Sherman listen to me? Doubtful. But with the Bear defense, look for more Favre interceptions and numerous sacks. The misery continues in the land of cheese. Prediction: Bears.

Texans @ Ravens
Last week, one team blew a huge lead to lose a game they had no business losing, the other attempted to come back from a huge deficit. Houston showed it can play offense, at least for part of a game. The Ravens showed they can play offense, when the other team has already started the victory celebration with a lot of time left on the clock. The Raven offense just plain stinks, and the defense really isn't all that good either. Prediction: Texans.

Jaguars @ Browns
Jacksonville, even without Leftwich, should take Cleveland easily. Prediction: Jaguars.

Vikings @ Lions
The Vikings have surprisingly won 4 straight and are on the outside fringes of playoff contention. The defense has started playing like many expected them to, and the more conservative offense around Brad Johnson has started to look decent. But it must be noted they have been beating lesser teams, the exception being the Giants in a game that took several really fluky plays to win (that's two such losses for New York this year). The Lions, of course, have lost their head coach and are yet again a lousy team. The Lion defense isn't all that bad, and expect them to raise their level of play with their coordinator now taking the head coaching job. Also expect the Lions to run a more conservative, run-oriented offense. That will keep the score low. With everything else being roughly equal, this is a tale of two quarterbacks, one good the other not. Good wins. Prediction: Vikings.

Bucs @ Saints
The Bucs couldn't ask for a better matchup. OK, maybe Houston. Prediction: Bucs.

Titans @ Colts
This used to be a top-flight matchup in the AFC. Now, it is just a small speed bump on the Colt drive to perfection. Prediction: Colts.

Cardinals @ 39ers
Those 39ers are hanging in there. They are still not a good team, but they aren't embarassing themselves like they did last year. They've beaten Tampa, and held their own in losing efforts against the Bears and Seahawks. For the Cardinals, they have rediscovered the joy of scoring touchdowns. Kurt Warner is looking better, throwing 6 touchdowns (against 1 interception) the last three games, along with averaging more than 300 yards passing. In their last matchup, the Cardinal passing game was all over the field (385 yards passing). Expect more of the same against a terrible San Fran defense. Prediction: Cardinals.

Redskins @ Rams
The Rams are down to their third string QB, facing what should be one of the top defenses in the league. The 'Skin defense hasn't looked all that great lately in a three game losing streak that appears to have pretty much ended their playoff hopes. But the offense has been worse, with Brunell only throwing 3 TD passes the last four games. Portis has run well, but with no touchdowns since Week 10. Against a poor Ram defense, I expect the Redskin offense to start putting it together again. In particular, I expect Portis to run all over the Rams and to score a couple of touchdowns. Prediction: Redskins.

Broncos @ Chiefs
The Chiefs need this win to stay realistically alive in the division race. A loss would drop them three games back of Denver, with the Broncos having the tie-breaker edge. They should be brimming with confidence coming off a dismantling of the Patriots. And need anyone mention that they play well at home? Denver is looking Super Bowl worthy. Their only loss apart from a Week 1 meltdown against the Dolphins, was a 1 point loss to the Giants. Earlier in the season, they struggled putting games away, opening big leads only to see the opponents come back. That seems to have been fixed, with only one game (last week against Dallas) since that loss even being close. The Bronco defensive line is playing particularly well and should be able to slow Larry Johnson down. Despite four interceptions of Brady last week, I don't particularly like the Chief secondary, so Plummer should be able to make some big passes and the running game should be as strong as ever. Too much for KC. Prediction: Broncos.

Jets @ Patriots
Just what New England needed after an embarassing performance against the Chiefs. Prediction: Patriots.

Raiders @ Chargers
Like the Chiefs, San Diego needs a win to stay alive in the AFC West race, and in the wildcard hunt. The Chargers are much better than their record indicates, hampered as it is by a slow start. The Raiders probably are too, but no where near as good as San Diego. Prediction: Chargers.

Seahawks @ Eagles
Seattle's run to the top of the NFC makes a stop against the team that has had that position for the last several seasons. Philly isn't there anymore, and will likely finish in the basement of the NFC East. Between the cross-country trip and their reputation for folding late in the season, this is still a challenging game for Seattle. I've already said that I'm not overwhelmed by the Seahawks. This could well end up an upset, but the Seahawk offense should be able to dominate the game, as should their defense against young Mr. McMahon. Prediction: Seahawks.

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 104-72